BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-47%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Hairy Woodpecker In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 170% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+170%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±190.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 170% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.35
20270.150.000.35
20280.150.000.35
20290.150.000.35
20300.150.000.35

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO22022
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO22025
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12009
PinonNEW-MEXICO12016
QueenNEW-MEXICO11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.