BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-57%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.49
20260.090.000.49
20270.090.000.49
20280.080.000.49
20290.080.000.48

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniorLOUISIANA41991
LafitteLOUISIANA41991
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA22011
MamouLOUISIANA11977
GlencoeLOUISIANA12017
EstherLOUISIANA12023
MauriceLOUISIANA11990
KaplanLOUISIANA12015
RichardLOUISIANA12017
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12015
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12011
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12021
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA12010
Forked IslandLOUISIANA12019
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.