BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+105%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hairy Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.81 (95% range 0.56–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.81 (95% range 0.56–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.770.521.0
20260.780.531.0
20270.790.541.0
20280.800.551.0
20290.810.561.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blackhead PkCOLORADO82021
Comanche PkCOLORADO72024
Gold HillCOLORADO72012
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO62024
Heber Mtn.UTAH62024
Alton 2UTAH62024
Deadman Rd.COLORADO52024
La Sal 3UTAH52024
PinonCOLORADO42024
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO42021
La SalUTAH42000
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH42023
Dry ParkARIZONA32024
ParlinCOLORADO32023
Dunckley PasCOLORADO32023
Wet Mtns.COLORADO32023
CokedaleCOLORADO32024
Lake City 2COLORADO32024
Baxter PassCOLORADO32024
Marshall PasCOLORADO32019
Gold Hill 2COLORADO32024
CebollaNEW-MEXICO32023
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO32024
SoapstoneUTAH32024
FerronUTAH32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.