BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+101%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hairy Woodpecker In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.57–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.57–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.770.531.0
20270.780.541.0
20280.790.551.0
20290.810.561.1
20300.810.571.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GallinasNEW-MEXICO132025
Alton 2UTAH112025
Comanche PkCOLORADO72024
Gold HillCOLORADO72012
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO62024
Heber Mtn.UTAH62024
Fox ParkWYOMING52025
Deadman Rd.COLORADO42025
CokedaleCOLORADO42025
Gold Hill 2COLORADO42025
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO42021
La SalUTAH42000
La Sal 3UTAH42025
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH42023
Dry ParkARIZONA32024
Cheesman LkCOLORADO32025
ParlinCOLORADO32023
Baxter PassCOLORADO32024
Marshall PasCOLORADO32019
CebollaNEW-MEXICO32023
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO32025
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO32025
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO32024
Grizzly RdgeUTAH32025
FerronUTAH32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.