BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.00 (95% range 0.74–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.74–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.00 (95% range 0.74–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.970.711.2
20260.980.721.2
20270.980.731.2
20280.990.731.2
20291.000.741.3

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT102011
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS92022
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS52024
Island CreekMARYLAND42024
BerlinMARYLAND42024
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE42022
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
East KingstonNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
Estell ManorNEW-JERSEY42022
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND42024
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT32023
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT32023
PepperboxDELAWARE32016
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE32024
BeltsvilleMARYLAND32010
MillingtonMARYLAND32024
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS32015
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS32024
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS32021
GreenwichNEW-JERSEY32023
BrandonVIRGINIA32024
WoodstockCONNECTICUT22003
ShermanCONNECTICUT22016
DanburyCONNECTICUT22017
HarringtonDELAWARE22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.