BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.45–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.45–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.430.85
20270.650.440.85
20280.650.440.86
20290.650.450.86
20300.660.450.86

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bays ForkKENTUCKY62019
HoosierINDIANA52024
RueterMISSOURI52018
PulaskiILLINOIS42025
MincyMISSOURI42024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE42024
Cave In RockILLINOIS32023
ScottsburgINDIANA32016
Cross PlainsINDIANA32018
GatewoodKENTUCKY32011
JoyKENTUCKY32023
PleasurevillKENTUCKY32014
SyracuseMISSOURI32024
Doe RunMISSOURI32023
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE32018
HillsboroALABAMA21994
CourtlandALABAMA22006
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS22015
BremenILLINOIS22025
DelwoodILLINOIS22025
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS22023
SanduskyILLINOIS22022
PimentoINDIANA22021
BelmontINDIANA22021
CumbackINDIANA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.