BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+121%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.65–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.65–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.980.611.4
20270.990.621.4
20281.00.631.4
20291.00.641.4
20301.00.651.4

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ParishvilleNEW-YORK62025
CatskillsNEW-YORK42015
HamburgNEW-YORK42025
DuanesburgNEW-YORK32024
WatertownNEW-YORK32012
N WilmurtNEW-YORK31998
North EastonNEW-YORK32025
EllenburgNEW-YORK32005
BalmatNEW-YORK32007
PeruOHIO31969
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA32024
ColchesterVERMONT32022
W ShokanNEW-YORK22019
SheridanNEW-YORK22024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK22015
E YoungstownNEW-YORK22023
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK22025
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK22024
West BangorNEW-YORK21990
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK22024
PittsfieldOHIO22024
LenoxOHIO22015
LucerneOHIO22025
LattasburgOHIO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.