BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+153%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.0 (95% range 0.66–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.0 (95% range 0.66–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.990.621.4
20261.00.631.4
20271.00.641.4
20281.00.651.4
20291.00.661.4

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CatskillsNEW-YORK42015
North EastonNEW-YORK42024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK32024
WatertownNEW-YORK32012
N WilmurtNEW-YORK31998
ParishvilleNEW-YORK32024
EllenburgNEW-YORK32005
BalmatNEW-YORK32007
PeruOHIO31969
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA32024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA32022
ColchesterVERMONT32022
W ShokanNEW-YORK22019
GhentNEW-YORK22024
OrleansNEW-YORK22024
HamburgNEW-YORK22023
SheridanNEW-YORK22024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK22015
E YoungstownNEW-YORK22023
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK22024
West BangorNEW-YORK21990
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK22024
PittsfieldOHIO22024
LenoxOHIO22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.