BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+156%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.83 (95% range 0.58–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.83 (95% range 0.58–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.810.561.1
20260.810.561.1
20270.820.571.1
20280.830.571.1
20290.830.581.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GreshamWISCONSIN82024
CumberlandWISCONSIN72023
HolwayWISCONSIN61988
MerideanWISCONSIN62024
HoltMICHIGAN52024
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN52024
NashvilleMICHIGAN42022
GalesburgMICHIGAN42022
FowlervilleMICHIGAN42017
EdwardsMINNESOTA42024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA42024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN42023
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN42022
Columbia CtyINDIANA32023
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN32024
S LyonsMICHIGAN31973
OsseoMINNESOTA32021
WhitewaterMINNESOTA31997
LockportOHIO32018
LoraineWISCONSIN32018
ManitowocWISCONSIN32024
N AndoverWISCONSIN32024
LakevilleINDIANA22001
FestinaIOWA22021
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.