BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+155%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.59–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.59–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.820.571.1
20270.830.581.1
20280.840.581.1
20290.840.591.1
20300.850.591.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HolwayWISCONSIN61988
MerideanWISCONSIN62025
GalesburgMICHIGAN52025
GreshamWISCONSIN52025
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN52024
NashvilleMICHIGAN42022
FowlervilleMICHIGAN42017
EdwardsMINNESOTA42024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA42024
Columbia CtyINDIANA32023
ScottvilleMICHIGAN32025
S LyonsMICHIGAN31973
HungerfordMICHIGAN32025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA32025
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA32025
WhitewaterMINNESOTA31997
LockportOHIO32018
LoraineWISCONSIN32018
ManitowocWISCONSIN32024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN32025
Fall RiverWISCONSIN32025
LakevilleINDIANA22001
FestinaIOWA22021
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN22023
HoltMICHIGAN22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.