BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+16%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Hairy Woodpecker In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±292.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±292.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±292.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.13
20260.070.000.13
20270.070.000.13
20280.070.000.13
20290.070.000.13

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ElbertCOLORADO82024
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA42021
VillegreenCOLORADO22004
KiowaCOLORADO12016
WaverlyCOLORADO12001
TrincheraCOLORADO11990
NeegrandeCOLORADO12015
NinaviewCOLORADO11994
PaxtonNEBRASKA12016
AgateNEBRASKA11981
BenkelmanNEBRASKA11994
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12005
CrawfordNEBRASKA12013
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO12011
FeltOKLAHOMA11972
ChanningTEXAS11984
LingleWYOMING12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.