BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
241Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Hairy Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.14–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.14–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.140.34
20260.240.140.35
20270.240.140.35
20280.240.140.35
20290.250.140.35

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS52024
WilmingtonOHIO51996
NewarkILLINOIS41992
WabashINDIANA32016
LafayetteIOWA32015
OlatheKANSAS32018
BucyrusKANSAS32023
MoreheadKANSAS32023
KahokaMISSOURI31983
MillwoodMISSOURI32024
LurayMISSOURI32022
MilfordMISSOURI32023
UnionMISSOURI31999
JulianNEBRASKA31991
EnonOHIO32021
WainwrightOKLAHOMA31996
River FallsWISCONSIN32024
New LenoxILLINOIS22013
StillwellILLINOIS22023
DaileyILLINOIS22022
MilfordILLINOIS21997
PawneeILLINOIS22023
HumboldtILLINOIS22024
St MorganILLINOIS22022
Lake SummersetILLINOIS22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.