BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
242Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Hairy Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.15–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.15–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.150.36
20270.250.150.36
20280.260.150.36
20290.260.150.36
20300.260.150.36

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilmingtonOHIO51996
NewarkILLINOIS41992
WayneILLINOIS32025
AthensILLINOIS32025
WabashINDIANA32016
LafayetteIOWA32015
OlatheKANSAS32018
KahokaMISSOURI31983
KingsvilleMISSOURI32025
LurayMISSOURI32022
House SpringsMISSOURI32025
MilfordMISSOURI32023
UnionMISSOURI31999
JulianNEBRASKA31991
EnonOHIO32021
WainwrightOKLAHOMA31996
ItascaILLINOIS22025
New LenoxILLINOIS22013
StillwellILLINOIS22023
DaileyILLINOIS22022
MilfordILLINOIS21997
PawneeILLINOIS22023
St MorganILLINOIS22022
Lake SummersetILLINOIS22025
YorkvilleILLINOIS22008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.