BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.040.31
20260.170.040.31
20270.180.040.31
20280.180.040.31
20290.180.040.32

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HopewellKANSAS32003
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA32014
WellingtonKANSAS22024
St JohnKANSAS22003
PhillipsburgKANSAS22000
LoganKANSAS21988
BerwetKANSAS22024
GoesselKANSAS22015
Beloit 2KANSAS22018
AlmeriaNEBRASKA21983
JohnstownNEBRASKA21969
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA22002
LookoutOKLAHOMA22023
ArapahoOKLAHOMA22006
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA22022
BookerTEXAS21995
DaltonKANSAS12024
CoatsKANSAS12019
ColdwaterKANSAS12005
AshlandKANSAS12007
ChapmanKANSAS11975
BuckeyeKANSAS12023
AlbertKANSAS11996
KanopolisKANSAS12024
GrayKANSAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.