BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 0% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-0%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hairy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Hairy Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.05–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.05–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.040.33
20270.190.050.33
20280.190.050.33
20290.190.050.33
20300.190.050.33

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA72025
WoodwardOKLAHOMA52025
HopewellKANSAS32003
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA32014
WellingtonKANSAS22024
St JohnKANSAS22003
KanopolisKANSAS22025
PhillipsburgKANSAS22000
LoganKANSAS21988
BerwetKANSAS22024
GoesselKANSAS22015
Beloit 2KANSAS22018
AlmeriaNEBRASKA21983
JohnstownNEBRASKA21969
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA22002
LookoutOKLAHOMA22023
HollisOKLAHOMA22025
ArapahoOKLAHOMA22006
PhrosoOKLAHOMA22025
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA22025
BookerTEXAS21995
DaltonKANSAS12025
CoatsKANSAS12019
ColdwaterKANSAS12005
AshlandKANSAS12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.