BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+132%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hairy Woodpecker In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.21
20260.070.000.21
20270.070.000.20
20280.070.000.20
20290.070.000.20

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA32024
LocoOKLAHOMA21978
ChoctawOKLAHOMA22005
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA21974
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22024
DuncanOKLAHOMA22024
Oak GroveTEXAS21986
OlaTEXAS21988
LydiaTEXAS22023
BonnerTEXAS22022
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12017
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12007
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12017
BeggsOKLAHOMA12013
NobleOKLAHOMA12019
TatumsOKLAHOMA12023
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12014
MuldoonTEXAS11986
LockhartTEXAS11983
Peach CreekTEXAS11984
Massey LakeTEXAS12005
OakwoodTEXAS11986
KosseTEXAS12007
WeatherfordTEXAS11978
SeldenTEXAS11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.