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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-69%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Hairy Woodpecker In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.50
20260.170.000.49
20270.170.000.49
20280.170.000.49
20290.160.000.48

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WillowALASKA52019
L SalchaALASKA42014
Unalakleet RiverALASKA42022
LivengoodALASKA22021
Tower BluffsALASKA22017
Goose BayALASKA21975
Skilak LakeALASKA21983
HomerALASKA21982
Kenny LakeALASKA22021
ChickenALASKA22019
Anchor RiverALASKA22003
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA22023
Galena (Short)ALASKA22022
KuskulanaALASKA22021
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA22024
Chatanika RALASKA12015
Birch LakeALASKA12008
SlanaALASKA12017
ChistochinaALASKA11999
KalifonskyALASKA12023
Chena RiverALASKA11988
SourdoughALASKA12021
TonsinaALASKA12017
SavageALASKA12022
Hatcher PassALASKA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.