BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hairy Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+127%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
390Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.86 (95% range 0.69–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.86 (95% range 0.69–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.830.661.00
20260.840.671.0
20270.840.681.0
20280.850.681.0
20290.860.691.0

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY72018
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA72018
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA72024
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA62024
Front RoyalVIRGINIA62024
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY52024
BirminghamOHIO52024
EldredPENNSYLVANIA52022
Bald EaglePENNSYLVANIA52021
RydePENNSYLVANIA52005
Fish SpringsTENNESSEE52023
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA52024
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA52002
LakeviewALABAMA42024
Piney GroveMARYLAND42024
DoverNEW-JERSEY42023
LaurensNEW-YORK42024
Craven GapNORTH-CAROLINA41972
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA42024
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA42024
Warrens MillPENNSYLVANIA42024
LandisburgPENNSYLVANIA42023
HebronVIRGINIA41995
Yellow SpgWEST-VIRGINIA42022
Lost RiverWEST-VIRGINIA42019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.