BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hairy Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Hairy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+105%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
392Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hairy Woodpecker has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hairy Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.69–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hairy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.69–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.820.651.00
20270.830.661.0
20280.840.671.0
20290.850.681.0
20300.860.691.0

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Hairy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY72018
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA62025
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA62025
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY52024
BirminghamOHIO52024
EldredPENNSYLVANIA52022
Bald EaglePENNSYLVANIA52021
RydePENNSYLVANIA52005
Fish SpringsTENNESSEE52023
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA52025
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA52024
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA52002
LakeviewALABAMA42024
DoverNEW-JERSEY42023
Craven GapNORTH-CAROLINA41972
Warrens MillPENNSYLVANIA42024
CovingtonVIRGINIA42025
HebronVIRGINIA41995
CanaanWEST-VIRGINIA42025
Yellow SpgWEST-VIRGINIA42022
Lost RiverWEST-VIRGINIA42019
CartersvilleGEORGIA32024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY32023
MeridaleNEW-YORK32025
DrydenNEW-YORK32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.