BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Thrush

TurdidaeForest birdsHylocichla mustelina

Wood Thrush has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2,175RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Wood Thrush

Prized for its flute-like, ethereal song, the Wood Thrush breeds in eastern deciduous forests but has declined steeply, making it a flagship for forest-bird conservation.

Size
7–8.5 in long, about 1.7 oz (18–22 cm, 47 g)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and other invertebrates from the forest floor, plus fruit.
Range
Recorded on 2,175 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 36 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Turdidae · Forest birds
Conservation
Declining

Notable Wood Thrush TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Thrush Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.213.1
20261.50.123.0
20271.40.032.9
20281.40.002.8
20291.30.002.7

Where the Wood Thrush Is Detected

BBS routes recording Wood Thrush, sized by most recent count.

Wood Thrush Population Trend by State

Wood Thrush population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-43%1968105
Arkansas-47%196954
Connecticut-52%196820
Delaware-12%196817
Florida-63%196839
Georgia-67%1968106
Illinois+183%1968100
Indiana+60%196868
Iowa+468%197323
Kansas+39%197021
Kentucky-1%196864
Louisiana+17%196973
Maine-86%196874
Maryland-49%196876
Massachusetts-66%196830
Michigan-7%1968102
Minnesota+520%196967
Mississippi+56%196873
Missouri+107%196983
Nebraska+6%19828
New Hampshire-88%196826
New Jersey-5%196842
New York-66%1968129
North Carolina-68%1968112
Ohio+303%196889
Oklahoma-57%197121
Pennsylvania-25%1968136
Rhode Island-43%19686
South Carolina-82%196847
South Dakotainsufficient datan/a2
Tennessee+0%196855
Texas-20%196934
Vermont-85%196826
Virginia-56%196888
West Virginia-21%196863
Wisconsin+75%196896

Wood Thrush Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Wood Thrush population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes-56%197916
Boreal Hardwood Transition+37%1968116
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-55%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest-87%1968152
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+120%197211
Oaks and Prairies-80%196910
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+160%1968236
Prairie Hardwood Transition+61%1968159
Central Hardwoods+36%1968159
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-25%1969104
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-43%196858
Southeastern Coastal Plain-50%1968324
Appalachian Mountains-19%1968405
Piedmont-54%1968169
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-65%1968160
Gulf Coastal Prairie-73%19765

Wood Thrush Conservation Status

Declining

Long-term surveys document a steep, sustained decline for this species, a recognized conservation concern. Our route-weighted index shows it down about 61% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.