BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Wood Thrush in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Thrush Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Thrush Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Virginia is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Virginia is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.90.3011
20265.60.0311
20275.30.0011
20285.00.0011
20294.80.0010

Wood Thrush Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Front Royal4220241993
New Market3420241992
Saltville3220241969
Pw Forest Pk2920091992
Appomattox2420241995
Bald Knob2420241992
Backbay2219741966
Partlow2020151977
Shenandoa Np2020241993
Ft Pickett S2019951993
Colonial Pky2019981992
Pine Mtn.2020241996
Isom1820241969
Waverly1819871967
Ivanhoe1819681966
Dryden1820241991
Natural Brid1720241974
Elamsville1720161978
Cornland1720141975
Nat Tunnel1720241981
Glenwood1620231992
Clinchport1419781967
W Augusta1320241967
Port Royal1320191977
Amherst1320241967

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.