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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Wood Thrush in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Thrush Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Thrush Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Virginia is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Virginia is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.00.2912
20275.70.0211
20285.40.0011
20295.20.0011
20304.90.0011

Wood Thrush Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Front Royal4020251993
Pine Mtn.3420251996
Pw Forest Pk2920091992
Shenandoa Np2720251993
Bald Knob2620251992
New Market2620251992
Appomattox2420241995
Backbay2219741966
Partlow2020151977
Surry2020251977
Saltville2020251969
Ft Pickett S2019951993
Colonial Pky2019981992
Isom1820241969
Waverly1819871967
Ivanhoe1819681966
Big Meadows1820251993
Elamsville1720161978
Cornland1720141975
Dryden1720251991
Amherst1620251967
Covesville1620251967
Rural Retrt1620251982
Glenwood1620231992
Port Royal1420251977

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.