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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Thrush Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Wood Thrush in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Thrush Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Thrush Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in North Carolina is projected to fall about 79% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in North Carolina is projected to fall about 79% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.008.8
20272.00.008.5
20281.70.008.2
20291.40.007.9
20301.10.007.6

Wood Thrush Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Wood Thrush in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beargrass2519811966
Cullowhee2120251974
Mashoes2019751971
Jonas Ridge1919711968
Arapahoe1819951966
Cherryville1819681966
Spring Hope1820252002
Mooresville1720011966
Rhems1719931990
Todd1720251995
Highlands1720251994
Craven Gap1619751969
Brevard1520251968
Call1520251968
Marshall1520251990
Bullock1320251997
Kyle1320241994
Andrews1319981994
Jamesville1220251983
French Broad River1220252001
Waterville1220251994
Cayton1220242010
Fontana1120251968
Linville1120251976
Oteen1120241976

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.