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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Thrush Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Wood Thrush in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Thrush Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Thrush Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in North Carolina is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in North Carolina is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.008.9
20262.10.008.6
20271.80.008.3
20281.50.008.0
20291.20.007.7

Wood Thrush Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Wood Thrush in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beargrass2519811966
Mashoes2019751971
Jonas Ridge1919711968
Call1920241968
Cullowhee1920241974
Arapahoe1819951966
Cherryville1819681966
Mooresville1720011966
Rhems1719931990
Craven Gap1619751969
Bullock1420241997
Kyle1320241994
Andrews1319981994
Brevard1220241968
Spring Hope1220242002
Cayton1220242010
Oteen1120241976
Chowan River1120062002
Fairmont1019811968
Speed1020241966
Biscoe1020171990
Marshall1020241990
Gupton1020242001
Ernul1020092001
Highlands1020241994

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.