BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Wood Thrush in Arkansas has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Thrush Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wood Thrush in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Wood Thrush Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Arkansas is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Arkansas is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.003.5
20261.50.003.4
20271.40.003.4
20281.30.003.3
20291.30.003.3

Wood Thrush Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Compton1820221967
Crowley'S Ridge1820242011
Ozark Nf1520241991
Blakely1319991968
Springhill1320222010
Old Milo1220241967
Boston Mtn.1020241994
Locust Bayou920231967
Stephens920242010
Ashdown820231967
Lurton820231967
Princeton 2820222022
Rudy720242011
Sims620242010
Hatfield 2620242017
Rupert520241967
Nance520241993
Poyen 2520242008
Hope420241967
Stamps320231967
Poyen320071967
Hollywood320241967
Havana320212010
Ramsey219971967
South Bend220231967

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.