BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Wood Thrush in Arkansas has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Thrush Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wood Thrush in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Wood Thrush Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Arkansas is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Arkansas is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.003.7
20271.60.003.6
20281.50.003.6
20291.50.003.5
20301.40.003.5

Wood Thrush Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Old Milo2020251967
Compton1820221967
Magazine Mtn1620251993
Blakely1319991968
Springhill1320222010
Hatfield 21320252017
Crowley'S Ridge1320252011
Locust Bayou920231967
Ozark Nf920251991
Ashdown820231967
Lurton820231967
Princeton 2820222022
Boston Mtn.720251994
Nance720251993
Poyen 2620252008
Rupert520241967
Stephens520252010
Hope420251967
Stamps320231967
Poyen320071967
Hollywood320241967
Havana320212010
Ramsey219971967
South Bend220251967
Crows219911967

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.