BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Wood Thrush in Vermont has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Thrush Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has collapsed in Vermont: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Thrush Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Vermont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Vermont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.004.0
20260.000.004.0
20270.000.004.0
20280.000.004.0
20290.000.004.0

Wood Thrush Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg1919941966
Waterville1819801967
Newbury1020041986
Newbury 2820232005
North Pownal620241966
Landgrove620241966
Northfld Fls620181980
Bristol620181995
Marlboro520241966
Greensboro520241967
W Rutland420231966
Middlesex420241968
Stowe420241988
Gaysville220211966
Post Mills220241966
S Wallingfrd220221966
St Johnsbury220241970
East Calais220241966
Hardwick220241966
Stratton120241966
S Reading120241966
Shaftsbury120241966
East Haven120241966
Fletcher120241968
Colchester120241986

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.