BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Thrush Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Wood Thrush in New York has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Thrush Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has fallen sharply in New York: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Thrush Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in New York is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in New York is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.005.9
20272.20.005.7
20281.90.005.4
20291.70.005.2
20301.40.004.9

Wood Thrush Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Wood Thrush in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Orange Lake4319921987
Dexter Lake3419751968
Ballston Lk2919951967
Cicero Ctr2720251966
Catskills2320151967
Oxford2319761967
Cooperstown1919771968
Rifton1819861967
Durham1819761966
Warwick1619741968
Hope Falls1619951968
Alder Creek1520041968
Cayuga1420251969
Nashville1420181967
Swain1320071967
N Victory1319721967
Pulaski1220251967
North Easton1220251967
S Berne 21220252014
N Wilmurt1119981967
Salem1020251967
Tupper Lake1019761968
Oxford 21020241977
Westbrookvle920191966
S Berne920131967

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.