BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Wood Thrush in Minnesota has surged: up 596% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+596%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Thrush Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has surged in Minnesota: up 596% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wood Thrush Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Minnesota is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.43–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Minnesota is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.43–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.850.381.3
20270.860.391.3
20280.880.401.4
20290.890.421.4
20300.900.431.4

Wood Thrush Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bigfork1420251994
Red Lake1020251994
Caledonia 2820252013
Sherry Lake820221984
Brook Park820251998
Floodwood720251970
Waskish720251980
Nett Lake720242013
Cromwell520251975
Hart Lake420241972
Little Fork420241984
Glendale420252007
Chatfield 2420252005
Millville320251970
Nebish320251986
Princeton320251982
Pine River320252003
Hovland320251973
Bemidji319801980
Caledonia320121993
Hartland220021996
Knapp220251995
Wigwam Bay220231967
Lockport220251967
Cohasset220131974

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.