BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Wood Thrush in Missouri has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wood Thrush Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has surged in Missouri: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wood Thrush Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Missouri is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.0–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Missouri is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.0–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.94.4
20273.21.94.4
20283.22.04.5
20293.32.04.5
20303.32.04.5

Wood Thrush Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cascade1920251967
Palace1920252013
Wesco1720251972
Graniteville1620251982
Williamsvill1520251994
Doe Run1520252015
Akers1420251967
Clementine1420021974
Bennett1420251994
Viburnum1120242014
Osage Beach1020251997
Clementine 21020072005
Syracuse920241969
Moselle920252000
New Point820251996
Hayden720251977
Huntsville720251967
Centerville720251994
Frankford720251989
Watson720191991
Eugene620252013
Centertown520251977
Frazier520241976
Lincoln520252018
House Springs520252017

Wood Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.