BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Thrush In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Wood Thrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Thrush In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.5–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.5–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.42.7
20272.11.42.7
20282.11.42.7
20292.11.52.7
20302.11.52.8

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN212019
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN132012
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN122019
ScottvilleMICHIGAN112025
MontereyMICHIGAN112025
AlmenaMICHIGAN102015
MatherWISCONSIN92023
Brook ParkMINNESOTA82025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA82025
HatfieldWISCONSIN81998
GreshamWISCONSIN82025
No BradleyMICHIGAN62025
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN62025
CadottWISCONSIN62025
Stevens PtWISCONSIN62023
RemusMICHIGAN52025
MottvilleMICHIGAN52025
HungerfordMICHIGAN52025
CumberlandWISCONSIN52025
GuilfordILLINOIS42023
NashvilleMICHIGAN42025
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN42024
TyreMICHIGAN41996
CohoctahMICHIGAN42025
HamburgMICHIGAN42001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.