BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Thrush In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Wood Thrush in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-56%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wood Thrush in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Wood Thrush In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03
20280.010.000.03
20290.010.000.03

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PantherIOWA22014
HartlandMINNESOTA22002
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA21979
WashingtonIOWA12004
ClareIOWA12019
BurchinalIOWA12003
HuntleyMINNESOTA12024
ArlingtonMINNESOTA12022
CourtlandMINNESOTA12018
DawsonMINNESOTA12005
GluekMINNESOTA12017
BadgerMINNESOTA11999
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA11979
FairmontMINNESOTA12023
FranklinMINNESOTA12018
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.