BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Thrush In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Wood Thrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wood Thrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Wood Thrush In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.42–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.42–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.31.17.4
20274.10.927.3
20283.90.767.1
20293.80.596.9
20303.60.426.8

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ballston LkNEW-YORK291995
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK272025
CatskillsNEW-YORK232015
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA222025
HinesburgVERMONT191994
HebronOHIO172025
Alder CreekNEW-YORK152004
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA151979
CayugaNEW-YORK142025
NashvilleNEW-YORK142018
N VictoryNEW-YORK131972
LenoxOHIO132025
PulaskiNEW-YORK122025
North EastonNEW-YORK122025
N WilmurtNEW-YORK111998
SalemNEW-YORK102025
LucerneOHIO102025
RomulusNEW-YORK92000
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA92025
CloverPENNSYLVANIA92025
BristolVERMONT92025
DuanesburgNEW-YORK82025
Cherry HillNEW-YORK82019
RhinebeckNEW-YORK72025
W ShokanNEW-YORK72019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.