BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Thrush In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Wood Thrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Thrush In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.33–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.33–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.21.37.2
20264.01.07.0
20273.80.806.7
20283.50.566.5
20293.30.336.3

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Wood Thrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT442011
Snow HillMARYLAND301976
SinepuxentMARYLAND291978
Grove NeckMARYLAND281996
La PlataMARYLAND272009
LargoMARYLAND221981
Fair HillMARYLAND221996
PomfretMARYLAND212024
CheltenhamMARYLAND202004
Colonial PkyVIRGINIA201998
PomonkeyMARYLAND192024
WoodstockCONNECTICUT172007
Pt RepublicMARYLAND171989
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE161998
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE151991
BlackbirdDELAWARE152024
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS151976
NottinghamMARYLAND142024
E HartlandCONNECTICUT131992
Island CreekMARYLAND132024
Port RoyalVIRGINIA132019
ShermanCONNECTICUT122019
Warren 2CONNECTICUT122024
Severna ParkMARYLAND122011
WinslowNEW-JERSEY122024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.