BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Thrush In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Wood Thrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+160%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
236Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Thrush In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.81–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.81–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.81–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.751.6
20261.20.771.6
20271.20.781.6
20281.20.791.6
20291.20.811.6

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash RidgeOHIO192021
BrookvilleINDIANA162024
House SpringsMISSOURI142024
BelleviewILLINOIS122024
EldredILLINOIS102021
AuburnMISSOURI102024
IrvingtonNEBRASKA101998
HarveysburgOHIO91996
Duncan MillsILLINOIS82024
MontpelierINDIANA82024
MoselleMISSOURI82024
SheffieldILLINOIS72024
ConcordILLINOIS72024
New PointMISSOURI72024
WatsonMISSOURI72019
W LafayetteINDIANA62024
Marion 2OHIO62024
Harveysburg 2OHIO62024
Deer CreekILLINOIS52024
MackinawILLINOIS52022
JanesvilleILLINOIS52024
RobinsonILLINOIS52023
ShelbyvilleINDIANA52024
WallaceINDIANA52024
FrazierMISSOURI52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.