BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Thrush In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Wood Thrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+163%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
237Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Thrush has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Thrush In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.84–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.84–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.791.6
20271.20.801.7
20281.20.811.7
20291.30.831.7
20301.30.841.7

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrookvilleINDIANA212025
Ash RidgeOHIO192021
BelleviewILLINOIS142025
IrvingtonNEBRASKA101998
MoselleMISSOURI92025
HarveysburgOHIO91996
BradburyILLINOIS82025
MontpelierINDIANA82024
New PointMISSOURI82025
Harveysburg 2OHIO82025
SheffieldILLINOIS72024
ChandlervillILLINOIS72025
W LafayetteINDIANA72025
HuntsvilleMISSOURI72025
FrankfordMISSOURI72025
WatsonMISSOURI72019
Marion 2OHIO72025
Grape CreekILLINOIS62025
MarshallILLINOIS62025
River FallsWISCONSIN62025
Deer CreekILLINOIS52024
ConcordILLINOIS52025
JanesvilleILLINOIS52024
RobinsonILLINOIS52023
WallaceINDIANA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.