BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Thrush In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Wood Thrush in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
406Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wood Thrush in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Wood Thrush In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Thrush in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.214
2027118.114
2028118.014
2029117.914
2030117.814

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Wood Thrush in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar HollowOHIO762024
DresdenOHIO532025
South OliveOHIO472025
Shawnee S.F.OHIO472000
Orange LakeNEW-YORK431992
DellOHIO432019
StonecreekOHIO432025
SlateWEST-VIRGINIA432025
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY421997
Tick RidgeOHIO412019
Front RoyalVIRGINIA402025
HopeNEW-JERSEY381994
Bolins MillsOHIO382025
Zaleski S.F.OHIO372025
Piney GroveMARYLAND362025
Baxter RidgeOHIO352025
Scioto TrailOHIO352013
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY341995
Pike S.F.OHIO342013
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA342025
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA342024
KeeneOHIO332023
Pine Gr MillPENNSYLVANIA332025
Fish SpringsTENNESSEE332023
FinzelMARYLAND322025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.