BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren

TroglodytidaeForest birdsSalpinctes obsoletus

Rock Wren has surged: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+368%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,067RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Rock Wren

The Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus) is a North American member of the Wrens (Troglodytidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4–8.5 in long (10–22 cm) — a small, energetic songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,067 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 17 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Troglodytidae · Forest birds

Notable Rock Wren TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has surged in surveyed states: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Wren Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.76 (95% range 0.47–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.76 (95% range 0.47–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.730.441.0
20260.740.451.0
20270.740.461.0
20280.750.461.0
20290.760.471.0

Where the Rock Wren Is Detected

BBS routes recording Rock Wren, sized by most recent count.

Rock Wren Population Trend by State

Rock Wren population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-46%197072
California+46%1970164
Colorado+252%1970116
Idaho+375%197253
Kansasinsufficient datan/a5
Montana+15%197074
Nebraska+33%196912
Nevada+473%197048
New Mexico+22%197073
North Dakota+142%197513
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a5
Oregon+191%197089
South Dakota-4%196920
Texas-54%196948
Utah+232%1970106
Washington+38%197050
Wyoming-28%1970119

Rock Wren Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Rock Wren population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-92%197328
Great Basin+236%1970219
Northern Rockies+148%1970181
Prairie Potholes+46%198511
Sierra Nevada+82%197123
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+42%1970216
Badlands and Prairies-12%196993
Shortgrass Prairie-48%196960
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-55%197619
Edwards Plateau-7%19777
Coastal California-11%197068
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+22%197064
Sierra Madre Occidental+34%197032
Chihuahuan Desert-39%196944

Rock Wren Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 368% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.