BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Rock Wren in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.94 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.94 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.002.1
20260.990.002.1
20270.970.002.1
20280.960.002.1
20290.940.002.0

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Rock Wren in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JordanMONTANA182023
IngomarMONTANA82016
Miles CityMONTANA62023
Wheat BasinMONTANA62024
Bull Mtn.MONTANA52021
RedbirdWYOMING51989
BucknumWYOMING52024
BrusettMONTANA42024
Reed PointMONTANA42024
CusterMONTANA42022
Custer 2MONTANA42024
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
WyarnoWYOMING42024
DwyerWYOMING41996
SchoonoverWYOMING42024
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING42024
Moskee 3WYOMING42024
BrandenbergMONTANA32019
Jordan SouthMONTANA32017
MayoworthWYOMING32024
Flatwillow 2MONTANA22023
Maynard CouleeMONTANA22024
Cabin CreekMONTANA22023
Hehn DrawMONTANA22023
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.