BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Rock Wren in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.970.002.1
20270.950.002.0
20280.930.002.0
20290.920.002.0
20300.900.002.0

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Rock Wren in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JordanMONTANA182023
IngomarMONTANA82016
Reed PointMONTANA52025
Bull Mtn.MONTANA52021
RedbirdWYOMING51989
SchoonoverWYOMING52025
Thunder BasinWYOMING52025
BucknumWYOMING52024
BrusettMONTANA42024
CusterMONTANA42022
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
WyarnoWYOMING42024
ArvadaWYOMING42025
Miles CityMONTANA32025
MayoworthWYOMING32024
MeadowdaleWYOMING32025
RozetWYOMING32025
PowdervilleMONTANA22025
Flatwillow 2MONTANA22023
Jordan SouthMONTANA22025
Maynard CouleeMONTANA22024
Cabin CreekMONTANA22023
Wheat BasinMONTANA22025
Hehn DrawMONTANA22023
Custer 2MONTANA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.