BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in New Mexico has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in New Mexico is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in New Mexico is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.004.1
20271.90.004.1
20281.90.004.1
20291.80.004.0
20301.80.004.0

Rock Wren Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Rock Wren in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Torreon2020251975
Salt Lake1220012000
Nageesi1020251969
Cerro Verde1020251984
Sabinoso920211980
La Cienega820221968
Counselor620251992
Variadero620221994
Vicks Peak620251992
Emory Pass620251993
Claunch 2620252001
Magdalena520251997
Shiprock520251995
Queen520211993
Farley420251979
Salt Lake 2420252005
Tucumcari319751975
Claunch320001978
Horse Spgs320251975
Horse Mtn320211968
Quemado319971995
Pinon320241992
Aztec319881988
Logan320241977
Farmington219871975

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.