BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in New Mexico has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in New Mexico is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in New Mexico is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.004.1
20261.90.004.1
20271.90.004.1
20281.80.004.1
20291.80.004.1

Rock Wren Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Rock Wren in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nageesi2020241969
Torreon1420241975
Magdalena1320241997
Salt Lake1220012000
Counselor1220241992
Claunch 21220242001
Sabinoso920211980
La Cienega820221968
Carrizozo720241968
Vicks Peak720241992
Variadero620221994
Queen520211993
Cerro Verde520191984
Escondida420241998
Farley320241979
Tucumcari319751975
Claunch320001978
Horse Mtn320211968
Quemado319971995
Pinon320241992
Aztec319881988
Logan320241977
Farmington219871975
Correo219821976
San Antonio219771977

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.