BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Oregon has surged: up 191% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+191%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has surged in Oregon: up 191% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Oregon is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.43–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Oregon is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.43–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.435.0
20262.70.435.0
20272.70.435.0
20282.70.435.0
20292.70.435.0

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Rock Wren in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buchanan3620241971
Blitzen3519931971
Catlow Rim3520241993
Blizzard Gap3320241984
Bly 22420242008
Harney Lake2320241993
Twickenham2120242010
Blitzen 22020241994
Paisley1720241973
Bridgeport1520221986
Adrian1320211984
Donnybrook1219971997
Barnes Val1119871984
Silver Creek1120241984
Warner Vally1120241993
Crooked Riv.1120241994
Donelly 21120242019
Crane1020241993
Three Forks1020242003
Princeton919851972
Trout Creek920211997
Flook Lake820241994
Willow Spg719711969
Sparta720011971
Eightmile720241982

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.