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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Oregon has surged: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+194%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has surged in Oregon: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Oregon is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.40–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Oregon is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.40–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.404.9
20272.60.404.9
20282.60.404.9
20292.60.404.9
20302.60.404.9

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Rock Wren in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blitzen3519931971
Harney Lake2320241993
Blizzard Gap2020251984
Catlow Rim1820251993
Three Forks1720252003
Adrian1620251984
Buchanan1320251971
Blitzen 21220251994
Donnybrook1219971997
Barnes Val1119871984
Warner Vally1120241993
Twickenham1120252010
Silver Creek1020251984
Crane1020241993
Sparta920251971
Princeton919851972
Bly 2920252008
Paisley820251973
Lapham Res.820251992
Willow Spg719711969
Eightmile720251982
Mount Vernon720241987
Lakeview720241997
Fish Lake620241976
Madras520251997

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.