BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Nevada has surged: up 473% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+473%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has surged in Nevada: up 473% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Nevada is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 1.8–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Nevada is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 1.8–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.71.57.9
20264.81.68.0
20274.91.78.1
20284.91.78.1
20295.01.88.2

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Rock Wren in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bald Mtn.3120241992
Meadow Vally1920241996
Fish Creek1520211997
Sand Pass1320241989
Virgin Creek1220181995
Ranchogrande1020241990
Oreana1020032002
Humboldt Nf 2720242021
Hawthorne720011997
Piute Mdws620242005
Jean Lake520101973
Nelson520241995
Charleston Reservoir520242024
Humboldt Nf520191993
Sheldon Nwr520191992
Midas420241990
Desert Nwr420241990
Gardnerville420121996
Hiko420231968
Austin420152015
Calico Spr319741971
Mizpah320162016
Toiyabe Nf320241987
Beatty320242010
Jarbidge320151997

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.