BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Nevada has surged: up 477% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+477%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has surged in Nevada: up 477% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Nevada is projected to rise about 236% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 1.5–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+236%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±153.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Nevada is projected to rise about 236% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 1.5–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.61.37.8
20274.61.37.9
20284.71.48.0
20294.71.58.0
20304.81.58.1

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Rock Wren in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish Creek1520211997
Virgin Creek1220181995
Bald Mtn.1220251992
Ranchogrande1020241990
Oreana1020032002
Hawthorne720011997
Jean Lake520101973
Nelson520241995
Charleston Reservoir520242024
Humboldt Nf520191993
Sheldon Nwr520191992
Humboldt Nf 2520252021
Desert Nwr420241990
Gardnerville420121996
Meadow Vally420251996
Hiko420231968
Austin420152015
Piute Mdws320252005
Calico Spr319741971
Mizpah320162016
Toiyabe Nf320241987
Beatty320242010
Jarbidge320151997
Chimney Res.320242005
Midas220251990

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.