BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Washington has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Washington. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Washington is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Washington is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.001.8
20260.830.001.8
20270.830.001.8
20280.830.001.8
20290.840.001.8

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Rock Wren in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walla Walla919931993
Cloverland920241993
Moses Coulee820231993
Yakima820241993
Lake Chelan620241988
Ellensburg520241985
Prescott520151985
Ewan 2420242024
Keller320061969
Malden320242024
Harwood319961993
Hatton319941992
Selah220232003
L Pend O Nwr219961996
Winthrop220121989
Sulphur220211995
Nighthawk220241992
Pomeroy220092000
Twisp120241969
Brewster120151977
Chewelah119961977
Arid Land Er119891988
Turnbull Nwr120171995
Ardenvoir119871970
Harrington120031984

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.