BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Montana has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Montana. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Montana is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Montana is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.001.9
20270.930.001.9
20280.930.001.9
20290.920.001.9
20300.910.001.8

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Rock Wren in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jordan1820231968
Ingomar820161970
Muddy Creek820152015
Willow Creek719811972
Brunzell Slough620252015
Glen520251977
Pryor Mtn.520252001
Bull Mtn.520211997
Reed Point520251977
Lima520251994
Cleveland420231984
Brusett420241982
Boulder420251969
Fort Logan420252018
Custer420222022
Freeman Creek320162015
Miles City320252015
Flatwillow 2220232014
Arlee220122012
Augusta220151977
Laurel220221975
Powderville220251970
Beaverhead219961978
Chinook220252021
Custer 2220252024

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasnebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.