BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Montana has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Montana. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.94 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.94 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.970.031.9
20260.960.021.9
20270.950.011.9
20280.950.001.9
20290.940.001.9

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Rock Wren in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen1820241977
Jordan1820231968
Brunzell Slough1520242015
Ingomar820161970
Muddy Creek820152015
Willow Creek719811972
Boulder620241969
Miles City620232015
Wheat Basin620242017
Bull Mtn.520211997
Cleveland420231984
Brusett420241982
Reed Point420241977
Red Rock420231989
Custer 2420242024
Custer420222022
Willow Creek 2320241982
Brandenberg320191972
Jordan South320172016
Freeman Creek320162015
Flatwillow 2220232014
Pryor Mtn.220242001
Arlee220122012
Augusta220151977
Laurel220221975

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasnebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.