BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Texas has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Texas. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Texas is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Texas is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.23
20270.110.000.23
20280.110.000.23
20290.110.000.23
20300.110.000.23

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Rock Wren in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft. Davis1020252004
Pidcoke519951995
Casa Piedra420221987
Black Gap420251988
Shafter419851969
Bear Mtn320251992
Toyahvale320251996
Utopia219971997
San Saba219691969
Castolon220251994
Hot Springs220251967
Valentine219871969
Dalhart220241996
Chisos Basin120251995
Marfa120182004
Van Horn120252023
Valley Spgs120001998
Adamsville119871987
Pear Valley119771977
Winchell119781974
Presidio120252025
Albany119951969
Allen Creek120192004
Devils R Cyn120251995
Ft. Stockton120132009

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.