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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Texas has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has fallen sharply in Texas: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.23
20260.110.000.23
20270.110.000.23
20280.110.000.23
20290.110.000.23

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Rock Wren in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils R Cyn720081995
Bear Mtn620241992
Pidcoke519951995
Ft. Davis420232004
Casa Piedra420221987
Shafter419851969
Utopia219971997
San Saba219691969
Hot Springs220231967
Valentine219871969
Dalhart220241996
Chisos Basin120231995
Marfa120182004
Van Horn120242023
Valley Spgs120001998
Adamsville119871987
Pear Valley119771977
Winchell119781974
Castolon120241994
Albany119951969
Allen Creek120192004
Ft. Stockton120132009
Toyahvale120241996
Quitman Cyn.120092005
Weinert119881988

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.