BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Nebraska has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Nebraska is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±582.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±582.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Nebraska is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±582.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.000.62
20260.290.000.63
20270.300.000.63
20280.300.000.64
20290.300.000.64

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Rock Wren in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Agate 2420242002
Agate320011967
Brady220242004
Oglala Nat. Grass.220192000
Kimball119781978
Gordon120112007
Murray Lake120181992
Stratton120191975
Crawford120102010
Paxton120112011
Dalton120241969
Culbertson120242024

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.