BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Arizona has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.003.1
20271.20.003.0
20281.20.003.0
20291.10.003.0
20301.10.002.9

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Rock Wren in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black Mesa1619951988
Cutter1420141995
Round Rock1019891968
Wickenburg920232019
Peña Blanca820251975
Rose Wells719781968
Oatman620191992
Organ Pipe620032003
Forest Lakes620251992
Squaw Peak519681968
Patagonia520211968
Page520191993
Ajo 2520192010
Many Farms419961993
Greasewood420031993
Navajo Trail420251994
Willow Beach419971992
The Gap319761968
Mormon Lake319681968
Blue319911974
Pomerene320251968
Cutter 2320172015
Alamo Res.320251992
Gila Bend320191999
Kaibito320101993

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.