BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Arizona has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Arizona is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Arizona is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.003.1
20261.20.003.1
20271.20.003.1
20281.20.003.0
20291.20.003.0

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Rock Wren in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alamo Res.2920231992
Navajo Trail2220241994
Black Mesa1619951988
Cutter1420141995
Toroweap1120241994
Round Rock1019891968
Peña Blanca920241975
Wickenburg920232019
Rose Wells719781968
Sprucedale720231992
Oatman620191992
Organ Pipe620032003
Forest Lakes620241992
Squaw Peak519681968
Patagonia520211968
Page520191993
Ajo 2520192010
Many Farms419961993
Castle Butte420061992
Greasewood420031993
Willow Beach419971992
The Gap319761968
Mormon Lake319681968
Blue319911974
Cutter 2320172015

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.