BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in North Dakota has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+142%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has surged in North Dakota: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±229.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±229.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±229.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.190.000.52
20210.190.000.52
20220.190.000.52
20230.190.000.52
20240.190.000.52

Rock Wren Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Rock Wren in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead Lk419971997
Golva220181986
Ft Yates220031979
Gorham120071968
Roosevelt Pk120191982
Glen Ullin120161986
Carpio119851985
Solen120152005
Tobacco119961993
Stanley119961983
Lark119761970
Bowman119861986
Zap120011975

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.