BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in South Dakota has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in South Dakota is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in South Dakota is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.000.82
20270.240.000.81
20280.240.000.81
20290.230.000.80
20300.230.000.79

Rock Wren Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Rock Wren in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Badlands420231982
White Lake319911991
French Creek220011999
Wind Cave Np220242000
Hazelrodt220241997
Cottonwood119931992
Rockyford120251967
S. Pioneer120041994
Roubaix Lk119861975
Custer119861971
Harding120041981
Cedar Pass120231967
Fort Pierre119711971
Maurine120251985
Reva119941979
Lacreek120251995
White River120002000
Pleasant Val120241992
Elk Mountain120011992
Lightning Cr120221993

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.