BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Idaho has surged: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+320%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has surged in Idaho: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Idaho is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.53–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Idaho is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.53–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.20.513.9
20272.20.513.9
20282.20.523.9
20292.20.523.9
20302.20.533.9

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Rock Wren in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Almo1120251988
Magic Mtn920251987
Tractor Flat720221999
Silver City720251993
Hot Spring720141988
Cobalt620251989
Blackft Res520181984
Baker520241975
Blacks Creek519771976
Glenns Ferry519861985
Joel520241989
Craters420181979
Triangle420251985
Dougal Res420251988
Cape Horn320251986
Carey320251989
Gifford220171986
Twin Buttes220251985
Circular Bu220221985
Leadore220241974
Alturas219871968
Springfield219991984
Acequia220121988
Marble Creek220252015
Pierce219921992

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.