BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Idaho has surged: up 375% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+375%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has surged in Idaho: up 375% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Idaho is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.60–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Idaho is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.60–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.573.9
20262.30.584.0
20272.30.584.0
20282.30.594.0
20292.30.604.0

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Rock Wren in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magic Mtn2020241987
Challis1120241975
Cobalt920241989
Silver City820241993
Tractor Flat720221999
Dougal Res720241988
Hot Spring720141988
Picabo620211991
Almo620231988
Blackft Res520181984
Baker520241975
Blacks Creek519771976
Glenns Ferry519861985
Joel520241989
Craters420181979
Marble Creek420222015
Ririe319761971
Gifford220171986
Circular Bu220221985
Leadore220241974
Dubois220241972
Alturas219871968
Springfield219991984
Triangle220241985
Acequia220121988

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.