BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Wyoming has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Wyoming is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.70–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Wyoming is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.70–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.00.835.2
20273.00.805.1
20282.90.765.1
20292.90.735.1
20302.90.705.0

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Rock Wren in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovell2820251990
Sybille Cyn2420251980
Nowood2220251988
Gebo1720251980
Reliance1320251977
Crowheart1220211987
Gas Hills1219931991
Flamin Gorge1220251992
Dubois1020251968
Rock Springs1020221977
Lysite920171989
Leo920251982
Cumberland820251977
Walcott820251982
Chugwater820241979
Rock Springs 2820252023
Midvale720221974
Patrick Draw719801973
Clark720251990
Meeteetse720251991
Horse Creek720251980
Anchor720182002
Worland720251992
Baggs720251995
Diamondville619821978

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.