BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesForest birds

Rock Wren in Wyoming has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Wren Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Wyoming is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.70–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Wyoming is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.70–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.00.845.2
20263.00.805.2
20273.00.775.2
20282.90.745.1
20292.90.705.1

Rock Wren Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Rock Wren in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sybille Cyn3720241980
Lovell1920241990
Fletcher Pk1820241979
Gebo1520241980
Dubois1220241968
Crowheart1220211987
Gas Hills1219931991
Horse Creek1120241980
Meeteetse1020241991
Rock Springs1020221977
Baggs1020241995
Lysite920171989
Mtn View920241980
Tensleep820241995
Reliance820181977
Chugwater820241979
Midvale720221974
Nowood720241988
Cumberland720241977
Patrick Draw719801973
Buford720241994
Anchor720182002
Walcott720241982
Rock Springs 2720242023
Fontenelle620241983

Rock Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.