BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Rock Wren in Northern Rockies has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+148%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
181Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has surged in Northern Rockies: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.71–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.71–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.724.0
20262.40.724.0
20272.30.724.0
20282.30.714.0
20292.30.714.0

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Rock Wren in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TwickenhamOREGON212024
LovellWYOMING192024
GlenMONTANA182024
Crawford MtsUTAH182023
Brunzell SloughMONTANA152024
BridgeportOREGON152022
GeboWYOMING152024
DonnybrookOREGON121997
DuboisWYOMING122024
CrowheartWYOMING122021
Gas HillsWYOMING121993
ChallisIDAHO112024
Silver CreekOREGON112024
Donelly 2OREGON112024
Horse CreekWYOMING112024
MeeteetseWYOMING102024
Rock SpringsWYOMING102022
BaggsWYOMING102024
CobaltIDAHO92024
RandolphUTAH92024
CloverlandWASHINGTON92024
LysiteWYOMING92017
Mtn ViewWYOMING92024
Muddy CreekMONTANA82015
TensleepWYOMING82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.