BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Rock Wren in Northern Rockies has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+154%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
184Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has surged in Northern Rockies: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Wren In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 0.71–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 0.71–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.724.0
20272.30.723.9
20282.30.713.9
20292.30.713.9
20302.30.713.9

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Rock Wren in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovellWYOMING282025
NowoodWYOMING222025
Crawford MtsUTAH182023
GeboWYOMING172025
RelianceWYOMING132025
DonnybrookOREGON121997
CrowheartWYOMING122021
Gas HillsWYOMING121993
Flamin GorgeWYOMING122025
TwickenhamOREGON112025
Silver CreekOREGON102025
DuboisWYOMING102025
Rock SpringsWYOMING102022
SpartaOREGON92025
LysiteWYOMING92017
LeoWYOMING92025
Muddy CreekMONTANA82015
CumberlandWYOMING82025
WalcottWYOMING82025
Rock Springs 2WYOMING82025
Willow CreekMONTANA71981
Mount VernonOREGON72024
MidvaleWYOMING72022
Patrick DrawWYOMING71980
ClarkWYOMING72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.