BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Rock Wren in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.000.90
20270.260.000.89
20280.250.000.89
20290.240.000.88
20300.230.000.87

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Rock Wren in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO92021
ChugwaterWYOMING82024
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO62022
Prospect ValCOLORADO51995
Cone MtnCOLORADO42008
FarleyNEW-MEXICO42025
Mica ButteCOLORADO31986
WaverlyCOLORADO32015
TrincheraCOLORADO32025
TimpasCOLORADO32014
AgateNEBRASKA32001
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO31975
LoganNEW-MEXICO32024
Last ChanceCOLORADO21984
GilpinCOLORADO22025
NinaviewCOLORADO22017
ElbertCOLORADO22025
Agate 2NEBRASKA22025
RatonNEW-MEXICO21994
DalhartTEXAS22024
BriggsdaleCOLORADO12008
KiowaCOLORADO11997
Wildhorse LCOLORADO12014
Adams Co.COLORADO12004
CrowleyCOLORADO11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.