BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Rock Wren in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-48%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.92
20260.270.000.91
20270.260.000.90
20280.260.000.90
20290.250.000.89

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Rock Wren in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO92021
ChugwaterWYOMING82024
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO62022
Prospect ValCOLORADO51995
Cone MtnCOLORADO42008
Agate 2NEBRASKA42024
Mica ButteCOLORADO31986
WaverlyCOLORADO32015
TimpasCOLORADO32014
AgateNEBRASKA32001
FarleyNEW-MEXICO32024
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO31975
LoganNEW-MEXICO32024
Last ChanceCOLORADO21984
NinaviewCOLORADO22017
RatonNEW-MEXICO21994
DalhartTEXAS22024
BriggsdaleCOLORADO12008
KiowaCOLORADO11997
GilpinCOLORADO12024
Wildhorse LCOLORADO12014
Adams Co.COLORADO12004
CrowleyCOLORADO11990
TrincheraCOLORADO12022
VillegreenCOLORADO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.