BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Rock Wren in Great Basin has surged: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+236%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
219Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has surged in Great Basin: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Wren In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Great Basin is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.7–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Great Basin is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.7–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.61.75.6
20263.71.75.6
20273.71.75.7
20283.71.75.7
20293.71.75.7

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Rock Wren in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BuchananOREGON362024
BlitzenOREGON351993
Catlow RimOREGON352024
Blizzard GapOREGON332024
BodieCALIFORNIA312024
Bald Mtn.NEVADA312024
Big PineCALIFORNIA262024
DorrisCALIFORNIA242019
Bly 2OREGON242024
Harney LakeOREGON232024
Magic MtnIDAHO202024
Blitzen 2OREGON202024
Meadow VallyNEVADA192024
PaisleyOREGON172024
LikelyCALIFORNIA152024
Fish CreekNEVADA152021
Peplin MountainUTAH142024
Sand PassNEVADA132024
AdrianOREGON132021
Virgin CreekNEVADA122018
Barnes ValOREGON111987
Warner VallyOREGON112024
Crooked Riv.OREGON112024
RanchograndeNEVADA102024
OreanaNEVADA102003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.