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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Rock Wren in Edwards Plateau has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-7%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 12% by 2024 — from 0.07 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 12% by 2024 — from 0.07 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.090.000.31
20210.090.000.30
20220.080.000.30
20230.080.000.30
20240.070.000.29

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Rock Wren in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PidcokeTEXAS51995
UtopiaTEXAS21997
San SabaTEXAS21969
Valley SpgsTEXAS12000
AdamsvilleTEXAS11987
Indian MtnTEXAS12017
Allen CreekTEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.