BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Rock Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+60%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rock Wren In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.910.004.3
20270.860.004.3
20280.810.004.2
20290.760.004.2
20300.710.004.1

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Rock Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CutterARIZONA142014
Peña BlancaARIZONA82025
Forest LakesARIZONA62025
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO62025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO62025
PatagoniaARIZONA52021
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO52025
Mormon LakeARIZONA31968
BlueARIZONA31991
PomereneARIZONA32025
Clay SpringARIZONA32025
SprucedaleARIZONA32025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA32012
FlagstaffARIZONA22025
MaineARIZONA21997
AlpineARIZONA22025
Carr MtnARIZONA22017
Aztec PeakARIZONA11977
San SimonARIZONA12024
SunizonaARIZONA11997
Skull ValleyARIZONA12022
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12025
Bartlett ResARIZONA12025
RedingtonARIZONA12025
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.