BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Rock Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+45%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
216Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.8–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.8–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.61.85.4
20273.61.85.4
20283.61.85.4
20293.61.85.4
20303.61.85.4

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Rock Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BonanzaUTAH802015
BicknellUTAH272025
Wray GulchCOLORADO242025
Baxter PassCOLORADO242024
Sybille CynWYOMING242025
TorreonNEW-MEXICO202025
CokedaleCOLORADO172025
Desert ViewUTAH172025
FayetteUTAH172025
Black MesaARIZONA161995
HatchUTAH162025
Lake PowellUTAH152007
DeltaCOLORADO132021
WalsenburgCOLORADO132025
NotomUTAH132025
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO122001
CastletonUTAH121985
PowderhornCOLORADO112025
Willow CreekUTAH112024
MoabUTAH112025
Round RockARIZONA101989
NageesiNEW-MEXICO102025
Cerro VerdeNEW-MEXICO102025
HannaUTAH102024
DoylevilleCOLORADO92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.