BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Rock Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
216Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 1.9–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 1.9–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.61.85.4
20263.61.85.5
20273.71.85.5
20283.71.95.5
20293.71.95.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Rock Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BonanzaUTAH802015
Sybille CynWYOMING372024
Desert ViewUTAH332024
Baxter PassCOLORADO242024
Navajo TrailARIZONA222024
ShivwitzUTAH212024
NageesiNEW-MEXICO202024
CokedaleCOLORADO192024
Wray GulchCOLORADO182023
HiteUTAH182023
Fletcher PkWYOMING182024
Black MesaARIZONA161995
LudlowCOLORADO162016
ClevelandUTAH162024
NotomUTAH152024
Lake PowellUTAH152007
TorreonNEW-MEXICO142024
Canyon RimsUTAH142024
DeltaCOLORADO132021
PowderhornCOLORADO132023
CounselorNEW-MEXICO122024
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO122024
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO122001
CastletonUTAH121985
Glen CanyonUTAH122024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.