BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Rock Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-92%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±577.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±577.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±577.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.15
20260.000.000.15
20270.000.000.15
20280.000.000.15
20290.000.000.15

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Rock Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA21977
Secret ValOREGON21994
Emigrant LkOREGON21986
HullvilleCALIFORNIA11990
Rio DellCALIFORNIA11975
LongvaleCALIFORNIA12007
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA11997
OrleansCALIFORNIA11989
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA12003
AlderpointCALIFORNIA12006
YrekaCALIFORNIA12019
KorbelCALIFORNIA12024
HiouchiCALIFORNIA12002
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA12006
DirigioCALIFORNIA12014
French GulchCALIFORNIA12006
GazelleCALIFORNIA11998
Ship Mtn.CALIFORNIA12015
ShellrockOREGON11983
Cool CampOREGON12005
ScioOREGON12002
Elk LakeOREGON11994
Hazel CampOREGON12009
Blue RiverOREGON12016
Warner Mtn.OREGON12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.