BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Rock Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-47%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.030.000.07
20290.020.000.07
20300.020.000.07

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Rock Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoatsKANSAS21977
LeovilleKANSAS22006
BradyNEBRASKA22024
ReedOKLAHOMA21978
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA22017
GrayKANSAS11981
GoveKANSAS11980
StrattonNEBRASKA12025
GordonNEBRASKA12011
CulbertsonNEBRASKA12025
ChesterOKLAHOMA11981
PhrosoOKLAHOMA12024
Pear ValleyTEXAS11977
WinchellTEXAS11978
WeinertTEXAS11988
ClarendonTEXAS12009
ChildressTEXAS11976
RotanTEXAS12022
EldoradoTEXAS11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.