BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Rock Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-55%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Wren has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.07
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.020.000.07
20290.020.000.07

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Rock Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoatsKANSAS21977
LeovilleKANSAS22006
BradyNEBRASKA22024
ReedOKLAHOMA21978
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA22017
GrayKANSAS11981
GoveKANSAS11980
StrattonNEBRASKA12019
GordonNEBRASKA12011
CulbertsonNEBRASKA12024
ChesterOKLAHOMA11981
PhrosoOKLAHOMA12024
Pear ValleyTEXAS11977
WinchellTEXAS11978
WeinertTEXAS11988
ClarendonTEXAS12009
ChildressTEXAS11976
RotanTEXAS12022
EldoradoTEXAS11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.