BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsForest birds

Rock Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.003.9
20261.50.003.9
20271.50.003.9
20281.50.003.9
20291.50.003.9

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Rock Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alamo Res.ARIZONA292023
Eureka ValCALIFORNIA152024
WickenburgARIZONA92023
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA92024
BarstowCALIFORNIA81998
OnyxCALIFORNIA72015
OatmanARIZONA62019
Organ PipeARIZONA62003
Squaw PeakARIZONA51968
Ajo 2ARIZONA52019
WildroseCALIFORNIA52022
PearblossomCALIFORNIA52024
Jean LakeNEVADA52010
NelsonNEVADA52024
Willow BeachARIZONA41997
Greenwater VCALIFORNIA42024
Gila BendARIZONA32019
Cutter 2ARIZONA32017
UbehebeCALIFORNIA32019
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA32024
Willow Springs 2CALIFORNIA32023
BeattyNEVADA32024
WikieupARIZONA22012
RivieraARIZONA22023
Valley WellsCALIFORNIA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.